Pete BoehmBack in October 2009 I wrote a Yahoo7 column called Buying an Australian home – still worth it? I asked whether Aussie homes were still worth the sacrifice. One thing I examined was the financial pressure to buy – that is, people’s worry that if they didn’t buy soon they’d be forever priced out of the market, with prices going up and up.
Not long afterwards, in an article titled ‘$1m homes ‘the norm’ in a decade’, The Age reported the Real Estate Institute of Victoria’s view that Melbourne’s median house price will be $1 million dollars in ten years’ time. Perhaps my column should have been called Buying an Australian home – still afford it?
You might think that it’s ridiculous or impossible for house prices to reach such dizzying heights, but is it?
Let’s see how far fetched a prediction this really is by taking October 2009’s median house price as a base point, looking back ten years to October 1999, then forecast ten years forward:
Median house prices October 2009
| Capital City | Oct 1999 | Oct 2009 | Change | % change | Compound Growth |
| Sydney | $315,000 | $615,000 | $300,000 | 95% | 6.9% |
| Melbourne | $199,000 | $519,000 | $320,000 | 160% | 10.0% |
| Brisbane | $150,000 | $459,000 | $309,000 | 207% | 11.9% |
Using Residex’s October 2009 median house price valuations in Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane – alongside estimated median prices in 1999 based on Residex’s House Price Indices – we see some huge increases.
The analysis shows that median house prices have almost doubled in Sydney, gone up one and half times in Melbourne, and tripled in Brisbane. That’s impressive price growth over the past ten years (keep in mind that during this period prices went up, down and up again but the overall trend is positive).
So, in the next ten years, what growth would we need before the median price hit $1 million?
Median house prices at $1 million October 2019
| Capital City | Oct 2009 | Oct 2019 | Change | % change | Compound Growth |
| Sydney | $615,000 | $1,000,000 | $385,000 | 63% | 5.0% |
| Melbourne | $519,000 | $1,000,000 | $481,000 | 93% | 6.8% |
| Brisbane | $459,000 | $1,000,000 | $541,000 | 118% | 8.1% |
As you can see, the compound growth required is between 5 and 8 per cent, depending on the city. That’s well under what was achieved over the last decade.
This suggests that, ten years from now, a $1 million dollar median house price in Melbourne, Sydney and Brisbane is, indeed, fairly likely.
Economic conditions right for growth
As in any market, home prices are a function of supply and demand. In the near future, population growth and an undersupply of housing stock will mean that demand continues to strengthen.
Combine this with a return to stable economic conditions and relatively low and stable interest rates and you have the necessary ingredients for home prices to increase well ahead of inflation.
While past market performance might not reflect future results, $1 million dollar median price predictions for Melbourne and the eastern capitals seem quite reasonable. Indeed, to go even further, Residex believes that 15 years from now median property prices will reach the $1.5 million mark.
What it all means
The residential property market is split into almost equal thirds: those who own outright, those paying off a mortgage, and those who are renting.
The first two groups are going to be happy. Their wealth and equity will increase as property values continue to rise.
But – without being too dramatic – for those who are renting and/or wanting to buy in the capital cities in the next ten years, the dream of home ownership might be nothing more than just that – a dream.
Affordability is already a major problem, and increased prices will make it worse. Low to middle income earners will be further marginalised, while the average Australian wage will need to rise 5 to 8 per cent per annum over the next ten years to keep pace with mortgage repayment and deposit requirements.
What to do
If owing a home is your goal, and you’re worried about being priced-out, what can you do?
There are no easy solutions, but here are a few suggestions:
• Have realistic goals. Be flexible about the type and location of property you can reasonably afford as your first home. Enter the market at the lower end and move up the ladder when your needs and finances permit.
• Consider investing first. It might be easier to enter the market with the aid of someone else – your tenant. They will help to pay off your mortgage and your investment property might eventually become your home. (See my column Is it time to invest in property? for more information).
• Don’t go for the biggest and best homes. Look for other types of properties, including units and apartments. These are good ways to get into the suburbs you like that might otherwise be unaffordable.
• Don’t over commit your finances. Getting into the market isn’t life’s ‘be all end all’. The last thing you want is to become a slave to your mortgage.
• Educate yourself so that you understand what’s involved in becoming a first home owner or investor. Do your research by going online and talking to real estate agents. Buy independent property reports to get a feel for property prices in the suburbs you’re interested in – making sure that, if and when you do buy, you’re not going to pay too much.
Credit: Real Estate Blog